EUR/USD analysis for May 12
Looking at the EUR/USD graph on the four-hour time frame, we can do the following technical analysis. After falling to 1.17000, after that, we move into a growing trend. Then we see the previous pullback to the moving average of the EMA200, and based on that higher low, we can pull one support line from the bottom. Now we also have a pullback with 1.21817, and again we can expect a pullback to the support line. By setting the Fibonacci retracement level on EUR/USD currency pair, we see that the pair has surpassed the essential 61.8% level at 1.21000 and is now in consolidation towards the next target towards the 78.6% level at 1.22100. Looking at the MACD indicator, we have a clean bearish signal, and based on it; we expect the pullback of this pair to continue.
Economic news and political statements for the EUR/USD currency pair include: Reuters reports, citing a government source who said the German cabinet today approved plans to allow people who had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 or had recovered from the disease without undergoing a quarantine procedure. Adding that this will not apply to those who come from high-risk areas. At the same time, the vaccine must be the one approved by the EU, i.e., Pfizer, AZ, Moderna, J&J. This is also a proposal made by the EU earlier in the month. It is also certainly a step that most countries in the region will start taking before the summer travel season approaches in the coming months.
The GDP growth forecast for the euro area in 2021 was increased to 4.3% from 3.8% earlier, as well as the GDP growth forecast for the euro area in 2022 was increased to 4.4% from 3.8% earlier. The increase in forecasts is due to the assumption that a significant easing of virus restrictions is expected, during the second half of 2021 (during the summer holidays), because vaccinations enable economies to open in a more significant way.