The dollar index is in a bearish trend for the second week

  • The dollar index continues its retreat today, falling to a new weekly low of 105.41. 

Dollar index chart analysis

The dollar index continues its retreat today, falling to a new weekly low of 105.41. We are below the EMA200 for longer and longer, which further strengthens the bearish pressure on the dollar. This morning, we saw a consolidation at 105.50, but we failed to hold above, and the index briefly slipped below.

This could indicate that the dollar has already started a bearish option and that we will soon see a continuation. The EMA50 moving average has also moved below the EMA200, further worsening the picture for the dollar. We have been in a bearish consolidation for two weeks now, meaning the dollar is in trouble. Potential lower targets are 105.40 and 105.30 levels.

Dollar index chart analysis

New low, or will the dollar manage to recover?

For a bullish option, the dollar index would have to move above 105.80 and hold above there. There, it receives support from the EMA200 moving average and moves to the bullish side. Below, we need a positive consolidation and a move up to the 106.00 level. Thus, we will climb to a three-day high and knock on the door of the weekly open price at the 106.20 level.

From the news today, we highlight first the Asian ones: the Bank of Japan and the interest rate, which was left at the same level. In the afternoon, in the US session, we will have the Core PCE Price Index monthly and annual report and the PCE Price Index, as well as monthly and annual data. Next week we are preparing for the Fed’s announcement on the future interest rate on Wednesday, and the forecasts are that it will remain at the 5.50% level.

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