Global Climate Targets

U.N.-backed study reveals that states collectively plan to extract far more fossil fuels than would be consistent with global climate ambitions.

The United Nations Environment Programme’s annual production gap study, released on Wednesday, indicated that governments were on course to generate more than twice the amount of fossil fuels needed in 2030 to limit rising global temperatures. Politicians and corporate leaders are under enormous pressure. They have to meet the climate emergency demands. They will do this by delivering on pledges made as part of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement.

The Paris climate agreement intends to restrict global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius and preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Every fraction of a degree counts. Hence the aspirational goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius is very significant since above this threshold. According to the UNEP research, most oil and gas companies intend to increase output through 2030 and beyond. Meanwhile, several big coal producers intend to maintain or increase production.

By the end of the decade, the government’s production plans and predictions should result in around 240 per cent more coal, 57 per cent more oil, and 71 per cent more gas. This would be consistent with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The findings highlight the chasm that exists between serious climate action and the rhetoric of officials and business leaders. They openly extolling their commitment to the so-called “energy transition.”

Policy Support for Fossil Fuels

The primary cause of the climate catastrophe is fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas. Nonetheless, despite a rush of net-zero emission goals and increasing promises from several countries, some of the most significant oil, gas, and coal producers have failed to specify how they intend to dramatically reduce their usage of fossil fuels.

In early August, the world’s leading climate scientists made a warning. According to them limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or perhaps 2 degrees Celsius, would be impossible to achieve in the next two decades. The countries will need significant, quick, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The UNEP emphasized this point once more. They stated that global fossil fuel production is “dangerously out of sync” with Paris Agreement constraints. It noted that international fossil fuel use must begin dropping soon. Moreover, it should sharply meet the goal of reducing long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States were among the 15 leading fossil fuel producers studied in the paper.

Oil, gas, and coal output would continue to rise until at least 2040. According to the analysis, the gas output should expand the highest among the three fossil fuels between 2020 and 2040, based on government plans. Moreover, most governments continue to give significant policy support for fossil fuel extraction. G-20 countries are directing over $300 billion in fresh funds to fossil fuel activities since the start of the pandemic. To be sure, this is more than they’ve allocated to renewable energy.

According to the scientific journal Nature, the vast majority of the world’s known fossil fuel reserves must be maintained in the ground. This will guarantee any hope of mitigating the worst effects of climate change.