Expert Says Countries Risk Second Wave of COVID-19 Infection
An epidemiologist at a Honk Kong University, says countries risk the second wave of COVID-19 infection if they lift the current restrictions too early. Restrictions include social distancing.
Many countries are experiencing a spike in imported COVID-19 cases. The second wave of infection has kept authorities on their toes as they determine when to ease the current restrictions. Restrictions have dealt a blow on essential economic activities.
Ben Cowling says establishig timelines will be challenging because no country will want to open up too early and become the first one to have a major second wave.
Ben Cowling is a professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Hong Kong.
According to Cowling, it will be difficult for countries that overcome their first wave, because of the countries experiencing their first or second wave. A second wave could be starting now in China.
Even though the number of COVID 19 cases appeared to have tapered off for countries such as Singapore and China, both have reported more imported cases in recent days.
Cowling added that testing and social distancing was still critical; therefore, fully opening up may not be possible even in June or July.
Imported cases causing worries
Drawing lessons from Singapore, Hong Kong, and elsewhere in Asia, imported cases can cause significant problems for local epidemic control.
Singapore gained global praise for its successful early intervention in January. This was before experiencing a sudden increase in the number of cases as more clusters emerged recently.
Singapore used the test and trace method, which seemed to work well until there were lots of imported cases that caused trouble for the technique.
Cowling said, based on Singapore lessons, testing and tracing contacts is still essential. But social distancing should continue the exit strategy.
Otherwise, testing and tracing will work well for some time, but imported cases will overwhelm countries, maybe by an outbreak.
That is why keeping the numbers down is a real challenge after the test and trace method is overwhelmed. Like for Singapore now, it’ll be challenging to get back on top of things.
Limiting the number of importations in the US is a challenge once some part in the US begins to open up. According to Johns Hopkins University data, the US has been the hardest hit globally. They experienced over 550,000 confirmed cases and 20,000 deaths.
Cowling cautioned that test and trace would face a big challenge with too many cases coming in, even for social distancing.
