EUR/AUD forecast for January 22, 2021
Looking at the chart on the weekly time frame, we can see that the EUR/AUD pair had support for the moving average of the MA200, but in early January, the pair fell below the MA200 for the last time since 2017. At the bottom, we have a long-term trend line, and now there is a possibility for the couple to test that trend line again. By setting the Fibonacci level, we see that the previous rejection from the trend line coincides with 61.8%, and now we have a break below the level of 61.8% and the possibility of the pair falling to 78.6%.
On the daily time frame, we see that the EUR/AUD pair found support at 1.56000. Technically, we can expect a pullback of up to 1.6000 that coincides with the falling channel’s upper line, which coincides with the moving average MA50 (red line). By setting the Fibonacci level for the bullish trend, we need a break above 23.6%, and as a target, we can look at 1.60000.
On the four-hour time frame, we see the movement of steam in the descending channel. We are currently seeing a pullback from 1.56000 to the upper trend line at 1.60000, supporting moving averages MA20 and and MA50. As the first obstacle to that level, we have a zone at 1.58500, the previous resistance after the break below. The bearish scenario is still in effect, and we can look at this in the short term as a pullback.
From the news for these two currencies, we can single out: Private sector activity in the eurozone declined rapidly in January amid an ongoing pandemic and related restrictions, recent data from IHS Markit showed on Friday. The composite production index fell to 47.5 in January from 49.1 in December. The result was seen at 47.6.
The result indicated the third consecutive contraction and the strongest deterioration since November. However, the economic impact of the second wave of infections has so far been less serious than in the first wave. The growth rate of factory production has weakened to the slowest since the recovery began, and the service sector has fallen at the second-fastest rate since May. The total retail sales value in Australia in December fell seasonally adjusted by 4.2 percent in a month. The Australian Bureau of Statistics announced on Friday, which amounted to 30.324 billion US dollars. That missed expectations for a 2.5 percent drop after a 7.1 percent jump in November.
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