Bitcoin in the Entrance of 2020
As of now, everyone can see that bitcoin (BTC) is trending down. The BTC price remains all about China and the trade war. And as it hinted for quite some time now, the improvement of the U.S.-China trade dispute is towards settlement.
Now, the so-called phase one trade agreement is a de-escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. The trade deal development is good for stocks. But not so much for Chinese demand for secure assets outside of the reach and effect of the trade conflict and the risk of a devaluing yuan.
But investors can rest assured that when the heat goes up at the negotiating table, up goes bitcoin’s price before hearing about what went on. Similarly, all progress towards a deal, interim or otherwise, will affect the price of Bitcoin.
However, a comprehensive deal between the United States and China is still far from happening, as far off as last year’s Bitcoin lows. So, until now, no one could really guess the exact thing that will happen next in the trade war. Hence, the short-term price of BTC.
But people could look at the chart and think of it as an index of the trade war. And if they buy that as a model, they may begin to consider how the trade war may pan out and thereby what will happen after.
Imagining it, there is a quick way to a full deal; Bitcoin is going to go to the low of 2019 pretty fast. And there might be a slight pause just over $6,000. After that, it is splooshing the price capitulates to under $4,000.
Alternately, with several trade war setbacks ahead, they expect to get a bitcoin rally back over $9,000. And that is a radically divergent pair of outcomes.
The Upcoming Election
Then, the key to this outcome is going to be down to Trump and his election hopes.
Next year, if Trump will win, China will try to settle fast, but Trump will want to hang tough. And this is because he will be able to drive a hard bargain if China is experiencing four years more of his pressure and hasn’t settled. As a result, Trump might get the deal earlier. And this was due to China not wanting to face a more complicated deal post-victory.
In a chance that Trump loses his election bid, China then will hang back, and Trump will hang back as well to berate China as a campaigning tactic.
Clearly, a democratic winner will close a deal fast with China. This is to snub the Trump legacy and get on with their own plan. As a result of a weak Trump in the campaign, it would pause or flare the trade war and fuel Bitcoin.
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