Global Growth Resilient in 2024, Upswing Expected in 2025

The global economic outlook for the coming years is shaping up, and financial markets are buzzing with speculations about aggressive interest rate cuts. According to a recent poll, the stable outlook suggests that global growth is set to remain resilient throughout 2024, with a slight uptick anticipated in 2025.

Divergent Growth Trajectories Among Leading Economies

Despite the overall positive outlook, forecasted growth trajectories among leading economies vary. The United States and India are expected to showcase relative strength, indicating a promising economic landscape. In contrast, the eurozone and China, the second-largest economy globally, are facing anticipated sluggishness. This divergence highlights the complex and interconnected nature of the global economic landscape, where regional factors significantly shape growth prospects.

Inflation Resilience and Central Bank Actions

Economists generally express optimism about the absence of a resurgence in inflation. This optimism is grounded in the belief that central banks, having successfully managed to bring down price pressures close to their targets, can maintain this stability.

Labor Market Strength and Upside Risks to Growth

The still-tight labour market prevailing across most developed nations further underscores the global economy’s resilience. With consumer and government spending showing resilience, risks to growth are predominantly on the upside. This positive momentum is a testament to the adaptability and strength of economies in the face of challenges.

In retrospect, the economists surveyed, who were overly pessimistic about 2023 growth last year, now appear more optimistic. Their initial projection of 2.1% growth for 2023 has been exceeded, reinforcing the dynamism inherent in the global economic landscape. Looking ahead, the forecasted acceleration of global growth to around 3.0% in 2025 and 2026 points towards sustained economic vitality.