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USD Rises Looking at Tough Quarter Ahead

The USD rose on Monday morning in Asia FX market as investors braced for a tough quarter ahead.

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.14% to 99.975. The greenback has regained the positive territory and looks to reclaim the key barrier at 100.00 the figure. 

The index is moving from Friday’s pullback and regains the upside at the beginning of the week. Rising speculations on the potential re-opening of the US economy on a gradual fashion affects the USD.

Some skepticism also followed in connection to President Trump’s 3-phase plan which was unveiled last week. 

In the calendar, the Chicago National Activity Index will be only due on Monday. Housing data, Initial Claims, advanced PMIs for the month of April, Durable Goods Orders are due at a later time.  The final print of the Consumer Confidence is due later in the week as well.

Sean Callow, Westpac FX analyst, warned hurdles facing optimists are very substantial. He said the USD is three weeks into a quarter that looks like the worst in many decades. 

For them, while the momentum may be with risk appetite for a little bit longer, it is very fragile. And they think it has to pull back very soon.

USD and Other Currencies into the Eye of the Storm

The U.S. dollar yen pair rose 0.28% to 107.81. Japanese Yen investors struggled with strong demand for risky assets and rising COVID-19 cases.

On the other hand, the USD/CNY pair gained 0.08% to 7.0769. The Chinese central bank announced a 20-point cut in its one-year rate to 3.85%.

The Aussie U.S. dollar pair lost 0.22% to 0.6343 while the New Zealand U.S. dollar pair lost 0.02% to 0.6023.

The AUD closed lower last week, but surprisingly finished higher three out of five forex trading sessions. The NZD collapsed at mid-week following comments from the governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

These risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies reported their losses as investors’ risk appetite soured.

Meanwhile, New Zealand awaits announcement whether government will lift or extend its COVID-19 lockdown later in the day.

The GBP/USD pair fell 0.18% to 1.2477. A senior British minister said the day before that Britain is not considering lifting its lockdown just yet.

In forex, some investors hope that the worst of the pandemic would loosen its grip on the global economy.

Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone, said we are coming into the eye of the storm.  As the market starts to focus less on virus headlines, he said. We will focus more on the lasting effects on the economy and solvency, he added.

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