USD/JPY forecast for December 04, 2020
Following the chart, we see that the trend has been bearish for the last five years on the weekly time frame. On the upper side, we have a trend line that is strong resistance and pushes the USD/JPY pair down, and the resistance of all three moving averages MA50, MA100, and MA200.
By setting Fibonacci, we see that the pair USD/JPY finds support at 50.0% at 100.00, a large psychological limit for investor investment. Bullish scenario is less probable and possible only in a short-term pullback to Fibonacci level 32.8% and trend line. The continuation of the bearish scenario is more probable and more realistic.
The daily time frame tells us that the USD/JPY pair moves in a large descending channel with some pullback to moving averages of MA50 and MA100. For now, the USD/JPY pair finds current support at 103,600 and is likely to pullback to 104,500-105,000. In general, the trend is declining in the long run, and a continuation in that direction is expected.
The dollar is under a lot of pressure and will be in the coming period along with JPY and CHF to reduce the risk by finding a vaccine against Coronavirus. The daily cases of newly infected in the U.S. exceeded 200 thousand and set new records. In Japan, the number of newly infected is also growing but is not critical.
The four-hour time frame tells us that pullback is possible to moving averages of MA50 and MA100 within the falling channel. The USD/JPY pair found support at 103,800 and making pullback; our potential target is 104,500.
Today in the American session, we have a lot of news that can greatly impact the entire market. We will single out the following: Nonfarm Payrolls, The Unemployment Rate, and Factory Orders. Recent optimism about introducing a vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease and the prospect of additional U.S. fiscal stimulus has kept the U.S. dollar under pressure by putting it on the defensive against other currencies.
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