NZD/USD analysis for May 11, 2021
Looking at the graph on the four-hour time frame, we can do the following technical analysis. We are in a growing trend from the previous low with 0.69430, making one line supporting the bottom. We can also adjust the Fibonacci retracement level, and based on that, and we can monitor the movement of the NZD/USD pair. We are currently testing 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.72643. If we see a positive consolidation above this level, then we proceed to the next at 78.6% at 0.73500, approaching the previous high at 0.74645.
We expect a pullback below 61.8% Fibonacci levels and moving averages for the bearish scenario, and then our target is 50.0% Fibonacci level with bottom-line support. We see the MACD indicator that the blue MACD line is below the signal line, giving us a bearish signal for a potential pullback.
From the economic data for the NZD/USD currency pair, we can single out the following news and statements: The value of retail electronic consumption in New Zealand climbed to the level of 4.0 percent in April, New Zealand statistics announced today – after rising from 0.8 percent in March. Consumption in the basic retail industry grew by 4.1 percent on a monthly basis. On an annualized basis, retail electronic consumption rose sharply by 108.7 percent, after rising 5.1 percent in the previous month.
The US NFIB Small Business Index in April was 99.8 versus 100.8 expected. Slightly estimated, but the reading is still five months, as optimism among small businesses has grown, driven by better sales expectations and improved earnings trends. It should be noted that the report also revealed a significant increase (10 points) in the share of firms that raised prices to 36.0 – the highest since the 1980s. Meanwhile, the planned price increase also jumped to its highest level since 2008, another sign that inflation is rising.