We see a pullback to 61.8% Fibonacci level at 77.80 and a bounce back to lower levels on the four-hour time frame. Moving averages are forever on the bearish side, and we are currently testing the MA200 with the first potential support at 38.2% level 76.95. Looking at the MACD indicator, we see that the bearish scenario is on the NZD/JPY pair chart with a tendency to continue as we slowly move into the red territory of the MACD indicator.
Looking at the chart on the daily time frame, we see that after the previous high of 79.15, we have a pullback to 75.59. And after that pullback up to Fibonacci 61.8% level at 77.80, we can now expect the decline to continue towards lower levels. Moving averages are slowly shifting to the bearish side, and we will soon be testing the MA50 at 38.2% level 76.95. If we find that support, we move to the bullish side again. Looking at the MACD indicator, we are currently in the middle, and it is a bit vague with a slight advantage for the bearish signal.
On the weekly time frame, we see a pullback from 79.00 to 75.50 with a high probability that the bearish scenario will continue lowering the NZD/JPY pair to even lower levels. We are still in a big growing channel, and that after bouncing off the top line, the pullback was an evident sequence of events on the chart. We will probably descend closer to moving averages, first the MA20 and EMA20, and then to the other MAs. The MACD indicator shows saturation and a potential transition to a stronger bearish trend, and we will get a lighter picture in the coming weeks.
From the economic news for the NZD/JPY currency pair, we can single out the following:
Japan’s leading index rose to its highest level in almost three years in February, preliminary cabinet data showed on Wednesday. The leading index, which measures future economic activity, rose to 99.7 in February from 98.5 in January. The most recent reading was the highest since June 2018, when it was 100.5.
