Next presidential election and U.S. economy
In U.S. history, there are only several Presidents who failed to win the second term in office. The only president who decided not to run for the reelection was the Lyndon Johnson. The current U.S. President Donald Trump already made his mind and said that he would take part in the next presidential election. This election will take place in November 2020. The state of the economy is always one of the most important topics when it comes to elections. The Presidents who were unable to win the second term in office presided over the weak economy.
It has crucial importance for Donald Trump that the U.S. economy continues to grow. This trend should continue until the next presidential election in 2020. Right now, the U.S. economy is increasing, and this process started ten years ago. The current economic expansion is the longest one in modern U.S. history.
The economy increased by 3.1% during the first quarter of this year. It means that this result is better than of the fourth quarter in 2018 when the economic growth rate was 2.2%. In overall, last year GDP increased by 3.9%, which is the highest annual gain since 2015.
According to the June job report, more than 224,000 were added, which is three times higher than in May. Unemployment rate at the moment is 2.7% which is also great news for Trump. The number of unemployed people is one of the lowest in comparison with the previous decades.
Problems and risks for Trump’s presidential campaign
However, Donald Trump’s approval rate is 44% based on the Washington Post and ABC poll conducted in late June early July. The problem with Trump is that he often makes comments which are harmful to his reputation. In the case of other presidents, the current state of the economic affairs will be enough to win the second term. During his presidential campaign in 2016, he promised that he would withdraw from Paris Accord and the Iran deal. He kept his word as the U.S. made unilateral decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. The Paris agreement is another topic which Donald Trump said he would leave this agreement. In November of 2020 U.S. will officially withdraw from this agreement.
The fears of the global financial crisis might hinder his plans for reelection. The trade war between the U.S. and China started more than a year ago. A temporary truce is not enough to solve the problems. The problem for Trump is not only the trade war but the farmers who are suffering from this trade war. The votes of the rural population are critical if Trump wants to stay in the White House for another four years. For example, China in 2018 imported soybeans worth $12 billion. Trump needs to reassure the farmers that he can defend their interests, as otherwise, this will pose a risk to his ambitions.
The U.S. economy is growing, and this is good news for Donald Trump. At the same time, the unemployment rate is low, which means that Trump can take credit for this achievement as well. There are some problems, but Trump has the chance to win the second term in office.
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