GBP/AUD forecast for January 4
Looking at the chart on the weekly time frame, we see that the pair started the year below the moving average of the MA200. There is a high probability that it will continue further towards lower levels closer to the trend line, thus testing the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. Otherwise, a bullish scenario can be expected if the pair exceeds 1.80000 with MA200 support.
On the daily time frame, we see a large drop channel. We have upper resistance from the upper trend line and pressure from moving averages from the upper side. Below we have a zone at 1.75000 where we have seen the previous two rejections. Technically, the bearish scenario is very likely in the coming period. A break below 1.75000 opens new lower levels towards 1.70000.
We see a falling channel on the four-hour time frame, with two bounces to 1.80000 and the last bounce to 1.78000. Now the important zone for us is 1.76000, where we can expect consolidation before the next major shift on the chart.
However, investors remain concerned about excluding the crucial UK services sector – which makes up 80% of the British economy – from the Brexit agreement. This comes on the back of an unprecedented level of COVID-19 infection in the UK, which, in turn, held the GBP bulls from placing fresh investors. Meanwhile, the final version of the UK Manufacturing PMI for December was revised higher to 57.5 from the 57.3 flash estimate. For the sixth day in a row on Sunday, over 50,000 new cases were reported. The government should consider further measures to conclude that a new strain of coronavirus is spreading across the country, putting further pressure on the National Health Service. In a weekend interview with the BBC, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said regional restrictions were “likely to tighten.”
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