EURUSD continues the current consolidation around 1.13500

EURUSD chart analysis

During the Asian session, the euro strengthened against the dollar after a large withdrawal from yesterday. The positive and troubled (risk-on and risk-off) moods of currency traders are changing, but it seems to be prevalent at the moment. The Interfax news agency reported on Friday morning that mechanized Russian infantry units were returning to Dagestan after exercises in Crimea and noted that the train with tanks was heading towards the base. Venture capital flows have strengthened again on this development, so the dollar is retreating. In addition, notes from the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve showed the day before last that the Monetary Committee did not consider the possibility of increasing the reference interest rate by half a percent in March, which is also not good news for the dollar. The euro is now being exchanged for 1.13680 dollars, which represents the strengthening of the common European currency by 0.06% since the beginning of trading tonight.

Bullish scenario:

• We need positive consolidation and growth of EURUSD above the MA20 moving average and 1.14000 levels.
• Then we enter the previous consolidation zone around 1.14500.
• Our next potential resistance is the 1.14850-1.15000 zone, which is an obstacle for us to move to higher levels on the chart this year.
• If the EURUSD pair manages to break above, our next resistances are at 1.16000, then 1.17000.

Bearish scenario:

• We need a negative consolidation and withdrawal of EURUSD below 1.13500.
• Additional support at that level is the MA200 moving average.
• Break below, lower us to 1.13000 previous low, and if this support does not last, we go on to the next at 1.12500.
• Our main bearish target is this year’s low at 1.11200.

Market overview

French unemployment rate

France’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2008 in the last quarter of last year, data on Friday showed. The INSEE statistical agency said that the unemployment rate fell to 7.4% from 8.0% in the previous three months.

EU news

The eurozone, current account surplus, fell in December, the European Central Bank said on Friday. The current account surplus was reduced to 23 billion euros from 24 billion in the previous month. Surpluses for services, goods, and primary income were realized in December. The trade surplus fell to 11 billion euros from 15 billion euros. Also, the surplus of services fell to 18 billion euros from 23 billion euros. Meanwhile, primary revenue rose from 1 billion euros to 7 billion euros.

British news

Retail sales in the UK recovered faster than expected in January as the disruption caused by the Omicron variant weakened, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday.

Retail volume grew 1.9 percent on a monthly basis, which is the fastest growth since April 2021 and higher than the expected rate of 1.0 percent.

Sales were 3.6 percent higher than before the February 2020 coronavirus.

Excluding car fuel, retail sales rose 1.7 percent in January after falling 3.9 percent in the previous month. It is projected to increase by 1.2 percent.