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EUR/USD regains its ground and points to 1.1800

After three days with significant losses, EUR/USD seems to have recovered, though partially. Now it is looking to regain the region of the key 1.1800 barriers. 

The dollar leaves behind some of the recent gains after losing momentum near the critical 93.00 level. 

The macro scenario does not change. Investors, for now, prefer to position themselves in the dollar. 

Europe’s covid vaccination campaign is poor. The region worries that a new wave of coronavirus infections. Besides, new and, in some cases, more severe restrictions have fully impacted the operators’ sentiment. They postponed the expected rebound of the economic activity for later in the year.

The best results on the eurozone calendar this week have failed to provide some support to the euro. For now, it appears to have found some containment at the new lows for the year at the 1.1760 zone. Here, the Fibonacci retracement coexists from the November-January rally.

The IFO survey has shown an improvement in the Business Climate for March in Germany, expanding the previous months’ progress.

In summary, while everything seems to point to a quick and robust recovery in economic activity at the end of the year, reality dictates that any attempt in this field is exclusively subject to the pandemic’s evolution. Accelerating the vaccination process appears as the only alternative. In this context, the greenback’s strength is not surprising. The dollar is expected to remain steady, at least in the short term.

In terms of data and results in the American economy, the highlight will be the publication of the inflation figures for February measured by the PCE. It will be followed by the trade balance, expenses, personal income, and the U index’s final reading that evaluates consumer sentiment.

Short-term technical approach

EUR/USD bounces from new lows for the year at the 1.1760 area and is looking to regain some bullish momentum to regain the 1.1800 area. Indeed, after entering the critical 200-day moving average at the 1.1850 zones, the outlook now points to a further decline in the short/medium-term at least. According to analysts, if the pair would enter these yearly lows, no relevant support is in sight until the November 2020 low in the region of 1.1600. While substantial rises do not appear on the short-term horizon, analysts see the quick fence at the 200-day moving average, which stands at 1.1856 today. 

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