China’s Pig Breeding Plant Inventory is Slowly Increasing
China’s inventory of breeding plants increased while the rate of cut for the world’s largest pork producer’s mob slowed for the first time in a year.
The breeding sows inventory in China surged 0.6% in October for the first monthly rise since April 2018, official figures showed. It signaled that pig output might soon start to recover after a devastating epidemic of ASF, according to Reuters.
The pig herd dropped by 0.6% in October, easing from a 3% fall the recent month, Reuters reports. This is the smallest month-on-month contraction in a year.
However, without an effective vaccine, it will be challenging for China to quickly replace the 55% of the herd it lost to ASF. Also, the herd losses in other parts of Asia may find it hard to recover.
Rabobank’s senior analyst said efforts are underway to expand output, especially with China’s largest operations, as they offer better biosecurity controls. Successful repopulation of large commercial transactions could stabilize market losses in 2020. Contrarily, a full recovery could take years. Rabobank expects a rebound in production starting in 2021.
As China prepares to enter its peak pork demand period, more supplies will likely be moved to high consumption regions. This could increase the risk of ASF spread nationwide.
China launched a reward system, offering whistleblowers up to 10,000 yuan for reporting violations in the prevention and control of the disease.
In November, China began shutting down some small slaughterhouses throughout the country. This is to prevent better and control the ASF virus sweeping through the region.
Commodities: ASF Impact on Global Market
As ASF spreads beyond China’s boundaries and throughout Asia, the global implications of what is happening in the pork are becoming more evident. Contrarily, Rabobank says pork issues are still underestimated. Rabobank analysts predict China’s herd deficit to reach 55% by the end of 2019.
ASF is the most important event in animal protein this year, and it will have implications for years to come.
Although China’s herd deficit is 50% every year for the first eight months of 2019, ASF expects to have a negative impact output still. Although, the pace will likely slow down due to government control measures and decreased farm numbers.
Rabobank said they expect China’s pork meat production to fall by 25% in 2019. The scale of the decrease expected in China is unpredictable and could lead to even lower output in the first six months of 2020. This will have effects that will last into the coming years.
As the count of infected countries rises, at least 75% of the world’s pork is at risk of ASF. As more nations report ASF outbreaks, more potential sources could bring ASF in China or into other countries by plane.
The spread of ASF in Asia shows how critical the transboundary movement, people, and pigs into other countries. It’s a worry from the perspective that there are a lot of potential entries at the border, not just in the U.S.
Southeast Asia is the hotbed of exposure recently, according to McCracken. Vietnam has ASF in every province. Vietnam’s situation is being compounded by some of the other foreign animal disease issues.
ASF represents a significant and growing challenge for animal protein in Asia. In many Asian nations, pork is the protein of choice set to give lasting change. Pork’s availability is slowly decreasing as ASF sweeps Asia.
