Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Bitcoin and Ethereum price volatility has intensified, and both fell to one-month lows on Thursday. Both are moved away from these low values since then in what appears to be a time consolidation. On Friday, the cryptocurrency market rose more than 7%, and bitcoin trading was 8% higher over the weekend. This comes after yesterday’s low of $ 34,997, while BTCUSD reached an intraday high of $ 38,968 this morning at today’s session. The movement from Friday shows that BTC is currently recovering and is approaching the key level of 40,000 dollars, which it has not reached since the beginning of the week. As long as prices remain between the $ 37,240 floor and the $ 39,640 ceiling, market uncertainty is likely to continue. The current mood is still more bearish as the 20-day moving average continues its downward trend.
Bullish scenario:
We need a continuation of the positive consolidation from yesterday and a rise in price above the $ 40,000 psychological level.
After that, we first come across the MA50 moving average, then around $ 41,000 we come to the MA20 moving average.
A break above moving averages would boost bullish optimism in further price recovery.
Our next first hurdle is the $ 42,000 price tag, and if Bitcoin continues, our next target is the $ 44,000-45,000 zone.
Bearish scenario:
We need negative consolidation and a price retreat below $ 38,000.
Below we can expect increased bearish pressure and further withdrawals towards $ 36,000.
There is a probability of testing yesterday’s minimum at 34,300 dollars.
Ethereum chart analysis
The price of Ethereum is also recovering today, after falling to $ 2,300 yesterday. Today the picture is totally different, and the price is already at $ 2695, and soon we could find ourselves at the $ 2800 level essential for Ethereum. Russian stocks in Ukraine continue, and investor fears appear to have eased slightly, helping the current price rise.
Bullish scenario:
We need continued positive consolidation and growth above $ 2,800 to find safer havens.
In the zone around $ 2,900, we come across MA20 and MA50 moving averages, and we need a break above to get their support further bullish below.
Our next target is the $ 3,000 level, and then the $ 3,200 high from February 15th.
Bearish scenario:
We need a new negative consolidation and a price withdrawal below $ 2,600.
Then we ask for support first at $ 2,500, and if it doesn’t last, we go further lower towards $ 2,400 and $ 2,300, yesterday’s minimum in the January support zone.
Market overview
Bitcoin is usually considered a hedge against inflation, and with growing concerns in financial markets, many expected its price to remain high and even increase. However, the opposite happened, but the decline was not surprising, according to FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Frieda.
In a text on Twitter, the executive director of FTX said that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis resulted in a sell-off in the traditional and crypto markets. The bitcoin price is increasingly becoming correlated with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ movement.
Bankman-Fried noted that Europe would most likely be hit by currency destabilization. As such, an invasion of Ukraine would create a demand for alternative ways for people to preserve their wealth, and bitcoin would be one of the obvious choices.
He also said that the crypto market consists of two types of investors: fundamental and algorithmic investors. The underlying investor made decisions based on his feelings about the entire market, while the algorithmic investor relied on data.
The underlying investor will buy when the market falls because he will seize the opportunity. However, the algorithmic investor will also sell during the international crisis due to the growing correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market. These two factions will cause a push and pull effect in the movement of the price of Bitcoin. According to Bankman-Fried, this action resulted in an 8% drop in Bitcoin behavior after Russia invaded Ukraine.
