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Afghanistan’s Destroying Economy and Taliban to Negotiate

 No longer facing severe military conflict, Afghanistan’s new rulers from the Taliban are engaged in a new threat. This new threat is an economic collapse that might fuel restored challenges to their control. 

Afghanistan does not have any legitimate government since President Ashraf Ghani and most ministers fled Kabul in the middle of August. Since then, the banks and money exchanges have remained closed while prices for commodities have surged in the eight days. Economic activity almost stopped entirely.

a Kabul resident who worked as a financial officer for a construction company, Bahir talked about the current situation. He said that people own money in the bank, which means they do not have money now. He added that it is difficult to find cash. That’s the reason why the entire business has stopped.

In the 1990s, a Taliban takeover strengthened the economy, ending fighting between opposing rulers and reestablishing roads to trade. At this time, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan built diplomatic relations with Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers. This agreement supported the movement’s appeal. So far, no country recognized the new government in Kabul, causing an economic disorder that could push the Taliban to form a more moderate government that involves rival political forces.

 

Various scenarios for Afghanistan’s future

At the beginning of April 2021, President Joe Biden declared that the US military would start withdrawing from Afghanistan from the beginning of May. This process is almost done.

The first scenario could be that the Afghan government follows what the US has been requesting to concentrate government forces on the defense of key cities.

The second scenario could be that the Kabul government negotiates with the Taliban and agrees on a peace deal with them.

The third and the worst-case scenario seems to be no deal between the Kabul government and the Taliban.

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